Market Conditions
Used Car Market
Manheim Used Index
—
loading...
Cox/Manheim · Updated Monthly
Avg Used Price
—
loading...
Cox Automotive · Updated Monthly
Days Supply (New)
—
loading...
NADA / Cox · Updated Monthly
Avg New Vehicle Price
—
loading...
Edmunds ATP · Updated Monthly
Rate Environment
Fed Funds Rate
—
loading...
FRED API · Live
60-Mo Auto APR
—
avg new car loan
FRED API · Live
Used Car APR
—
avg used loan
FRED API · Live
Public Dealer Groups — Today ● LIVE · Yahoo Finance
EV Inventory Glut Watch
EV Days Supply
113
vs 55 industry avg
Cox Auto · Updated Monthly
Incentive Spend/EV
$8,200
avg OEM contribution
Edmunds · Updated Monthly
Delinquency Rates — Federal Reserve Data
Auto 30+ DPD (All)
—
loading...
FRED DRALACBS · Live
Subprime 90+ DPD
—
highest since 2010
NY Fed · Updated Quarterly
Auto Loan Balance
—
total US consumer
FRED MVLOAS · Live
Avg Monthly Payment
—
new vehicle 2025
Edmunds / Cox · Updated Monthly
Borrower Stress — NY Fed Q4 2024
Newly Delinquent (30–89)
3.1%
transition rate · highest since 2011
NY Fed · Updated Quarterly
Seriously Delinquent (90+)
1.4%
NY Fed · up 0.4pp YoY
NY Fed · Updated Quarterly
Under-40 Delinquency
4.3%
age cohort most stressed
NY Fed · Updated Quarterly
Auto Originations
$159B
Q4 2024 quarterly volume
NY Fed · Updated Quarterly
Lender Net Charge-Off Rates — Q4 2024 Earnings (Public)
Source: SEC 10-Q / 10-K filings and Q4 2024 earnings releases. All figures publicly reported. Subprime-heavy lenders (CapOne, CAF) bearing highest loss rates.
Auto ABS Market — Public TRACE / SIFMA Data
Subprime ABS Spread
+280bp
over treasury · SIFMA
SIFMA / TRACE · Updated Monthly
Prime ABS Spread
+62bp
over treasury · stable
SIFMA / TRACE · Updated Monthly
ABS Issuance YTD
$48B
auto ABS 2025 · SIFMA
SIFMA · Updated Monthly
Tariff Impact Watch
Import Tariff (Auto)
25%
Canada/Mexico — active
USTR / White House · As Announced
Est. Price Impact
+$4,000
avg imported vehicle
Anderson Econ Group · Est.
Domestic Mix
48%
of US sales, US-made
NADA / BEA · Updated Annually
Most Exposed
Toyota
Subaru
Subaru
high import reliance
NADA / OEM Filings · 2024
OEM Inventory Days Supply
Incentive Spend / Vehicle (Feb 2025)
Stellantis
$6,800
highest in industry
J.D. Power PIN · Feb 2025
GM
$4,200
up 18% YoY
J.D. Power PIN · Feb 2025
Ford
$3,900
truck-heavy mix
J.D. Power PIN · Feb 2025
Toyota
$1,400
supply discipline
J.D. Power PIN · Feb 2025
Public Dealer Group Financials — TTM
M&A Activity — 2024–2025
M&A
Lithia Motors acquires 14-store Southeast group for est. $620M — accelerating Southeast footprint push
Mar 25
DEAL
AutoNation closes 6 underperforming stores in Q1 2025 — efficiency play as GPU normalizes
Mar 18
OEM
Stellantis cuts 18 dealers in Southern US citing inventory disputes and performance floors
Mar 10
DEAL
Private equity backed group acquires 8 Honda/Toyota stores at 4.2x Blue Sky — multiple compression from 2022 peak of 6.8x
Feb 28
Blue Sky Multiples — Q4 2025 ⚠ Q1 2026 REPORT PENDING
Toyota / Honda
4–5x
EBT, most stable
Kerrigan Advisors · Q4 2025 · Q1 2026 Pending
Domestic (GM/Ford)
2.5–4x
EBT, vol dependent
Kerrigan Advisors · Q4 2025 · Q1 2026 Pending
Stellantis
1.5–2.5x
EBT, distressed market
Kerrigan Advisors · Q4 2025 · Q1 2026 Pending
Luxury (MB/BMW/Lex)
5–7x
EBT, premium floor
Kerrigan Advisors · Q4 2025 · Q1 2026 Pending
Live Industry Signal Feed
aggregating signal...